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Public
cases are used by the media, organizations, classes, groups, etc:
·
Media.
If you are in the media, you can use FactLogic to involve your audience at a
level never before available. FactLogic helps you keep your audience
involved and loyal – and that means higher ratings.
·
Organizations, Classes, and Groups.
Use FactLogic to see how your group evaluates a case (e.g., as a mock
jury).
You
can use FactLogic to evaluate and compare assertions from forensic science ,
security, geology, astronomy, archeology, paleontology, evolutionary
biology, etc. For the purpose of investigation, a case consists of one or
more independent facts and one or more assertions. (Two facts are
independent if knowing that one fact exists does not change your judgment of
the other fact.) An assertion is a statement to be proved - such as an
allegation, charge, cause of action, hypothesis, etc. Independent facts are
judged to evaluate assertions. Assertions are evaluated as the probability
it is true. FactLogic provides the logical evaluation of an assertion. If
there are multiple assertions, compare them by comparing the probability
that each is true.
You
can easily create your case and evaluate it.
·
Create
Your Case.
Enter some case information, one or more assertions, and the independent
facts.
·
Evaluate
Your Case.
You, and those who are aware that the case is posted on the Web, can
immediately evaluate your case. Evaluators can be collocated or dispersed.
Factlogic combines multiple evaluations and provides the statistical
conclusions.
1. Evaluation
Since a public case involves multiple evaluators,
conclusions are especially trustworthy and accurate. Evaluators can be
collocated or dispersed.
·
Obtain
Multiple Evaluators.
The more evaluators, the more precise will be the estimate. Since this is a
public case, you can reach evaluators in a number of ways such as the media,
announcement, advertisement, flyer, e-mail, etc. You have chosen the
population of evaluators. They are selected randomly from that population
since they chose to respond.
· Obtain
Independent Evaluations. Evaluators should judge the facts independently (i.e., without
communication). Communication introduces bias, but it is not an issue if
evaluators are dispersed.
2. Analysis
Statistical analysis is appropriate for investigations
because evaluators need to know how accurately they have estimated the
probability an assertion is true, and they sometimes need to compare the
probabilities that multiple assertions are true. FactLogic computes the
average probability the assertion is true (from the participating
evaluators), and it computes an interval, that is centered on the average,
that you can be 95% confident contains the average probability the assertion
is true (from the population). |
