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Public
cases are used by the media, organizations, classes, groups, etc.
·
Media.
If you are in the media, you can use FactLogic to involve your audience at a
level never before available. It puts them in the jury box. FactLogic helps
you keep your audience involved and loyal – and that means higher ratings.
·
Organizations, Classes, and Groups.
Use FactLogic to see how your group evaluates the case (e.g., as a mock
jury).
For
the purpose of investigation, a case consists of one or more independent
facts, and one or more potential suspects. (Two facts are independent if
knowing that one fact exists does not change your judgment of the other
fact.) The responsibility of a potential suspect is a statement to be
proved. Independent facts are judged to evaluate the responsibility of
potential suspects. The degree of responsibility is expressed as the
probability of responsibility. FactLogic provides the logical probability
of responsibility. Compare the probabilities of responsibility for the
potential suspects.
You
can easily create your case and evaluate it.
·
Create
Your Case.
Enter some case information, one or more potential suspects, and the
independent facts.
·
Evaluate
Your Case.
You, and those aware that the case is posted on the Web, can immediately
evaluate your case. Evaluators can be collocated or dispersed. Factlogic
combines multiple evaluations and provides the statistical conclusions.
Compare the probabilities of responsibility for the potential suspects.
1. Evaluation
Since the public method involves multiple evaluators,
conclusions are especially trustworthy and accurate. Evaluators can be
collocated or dispersed.
·
Obtain
Multiple Evaluators.
The more evaluators, the more precise will be the estimate. Since this is a
public case, you can reach evaluators in a number of ways such as the media,
announcement, advertisement, flyer, e-mail, etc. You have chosen the
population of evaluators. They are selected randomly from the population
since they chose to respond.
· Obtain
Independent Evaluations. Evaluators should judge the facts independently (i.e., without
communication). Communication introduces bias, but it is not an issue if
evaluators are dispersed.
2. Analysis
Statistical analysis is appropriate for investigations
because investigators need to know how accurately they have estimated the
probability of responsibility for a potential suspect, and they need to
compare the probabilities of responsibility. FactLogic computes the average
probability of responsibility (from the participating evaluators), and it
computes an interval, that is centered on the average, that you can be 95%
confident contains the average probability of responsibility (from the
population). |
