|
FactLogic supplies the answers to almost any questions concerning a civil
case:
-
It can
evaluate the elements and a cause of action either logically or
intuitively (as do jurors).
-
It can
evaluate any cause of action from its elements. It can use
quantified judgments about the facts from each and all evaluators. That
is, each evaluator knows the results of his/her judgments as well as
those of the average from all evaluators
-
It can
evaluate the assertions (i.e., elements or causes of action) under different conditions.
Note: throughout this text, "assertion" will refer to either an
"element" or a "cause of action".
-
It can
predict the verdict and the amount to be received by each vested party.
-
It can be
used at any step during the civil procedure.
To
evaluate a civil case, do the following:
-
Create The Case. Create your case by entering some case information,
the facts, and one or more assertions to be proved by the facts.
-
Copy The Case. Copy the case for each condition under
which you evaluate the case. Simply click, "Copy Case."
-
Select Your Audience, Organization, Class, etc. Their judgments are
to emulate the judgments of jurors. Evaluators can be collocated or dispersed.
A. Evaluate An
Assertion
A.1
Persuasion
The
attorney can present different persuasions to the evaluators, usually during
a mock trial. For each version of persuasion, the attorney can vary any of
the following:
- Opening Statements
- Closing Arguments
- Witnesses
- Exhibits
- Evaluators.
FactLogic allows you to
copy your case for each version of persuasion you would like to evaluate.
A.2 The
Assertion is Evaluated in Two Ways
Evaluators judge the facts by quantifying
their judgments as probabilities. After they judge the facts to evaluate an
assertion, they are also asked to evaluate the same assertion intuitively.
Evaluations
should result from the following conditions:
-
Evaluators should be drawn randomly from a
population that is similar to the venue, venire, or selected jurors
(i.e., whichever group is to be emulate
-
Evaluators should not communicate. It is
true that fact finders communicate (i.e., deliberate), but, since it is
impossible to anticipate and emulate unusually persuasive fact finders,
it seems better not to try
-
Each assertion is evaluated twice - logically and
intuitively:
o Logical
Evaluation. Evaluators evaluate the assertion
logically (by expressing their judgments as probabilities so Factlogic can
combine the probabilities according to probability theory). Then FactLogic expresses the
logical evaluation as the probability the assertion is true.
o Intuitive
Evaluation. FactFinders (e.g., judges or jurors)
will evaluate assertions intuitively. Since the purpose is to emulate their
judgments, evaluators are asked to evaluate assertions intuitively: They
judge the facts (without quantifying them), evaluate the assertion
intuitively, and express the intuitive evaluation as the probability the
assertion is true.
Even
though fact finders in a trial will evaluate assertions intuitively, the
logical evaluation is the most accurate evaluation possible (given the
wisdom of the judgments of the facts). The statistics described in Section
2.4.2 are determined.
B. Predict The Verdict
To predict a verdict, FactLogic requires
multiple evaluators - the more, the better. FactLogic coordinates these
three parameters:
-
Verdict criteria for the case
-
The probability the assertion is true (for
each assertion and each evaluator)
-
The standard of proof (for each evaluator,
if appropriate).
Then, FactLogic uses the theory of statistics
and probability to determine the probability the verdict will be for the
plaintiff/prosecution. It does it for the following three verdict scenarios:
-
Probability = 0% that the verdict will be
for the plaintiff/prosecution (This probability is equivalent to a
verdict for the defendant.)
-
Estimated probability that the verdict
will be for the plaintiff/prosecution.
-
Probability = 100% that the verdict will
be for the plaintiff/prosecution.
When the case is created or edited, the
administrator enters pre-trial estimates of the interests of each vested
party (i.e., costs, fees, damages, etc.). FactLogic converts the pre-trial
estimates to post-trial estimates for
|
