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FactLogic provides the information to make the best possible decisions for
your case:
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It can
evaluate the elements and a cause of action either logically or
intuitively (as do jurors).
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It can
evaluate any cause of action from evaluations of its elements. It can use
quantified judgments about the facts from you or from evaluators you
might invite.
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It can
evaluate the assertions (i.e., either elements or causes of action) under different versions of persuasion (or under
no persuasion). Note: Throughout this text, "assertion" will refer
to either an "element" or a "cause of action".
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It can
predict the verdict for any and all assertions and the amount to be received by each vested party.
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It can
evaluate the assertions and predict the verdict from any
invited evaluators you choose to select/deselect.
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It can be
used at any step of the civil procedure.
To
evaluate a civil case, do the following:
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Create The Case. Create your case by entering some case information,
the facts, and one or more assertions to be proved by the facts.
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Copy The Case. Copy the case for each version of persuasion under
which you evaluate the case. Simply click, "Copy Case."
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Select Evaluators. If you choose, randomly draw a number of
evaluators from the venue or the venire. The purpose is to emulate the
judgments of jurors. Evaluators can be collocated or dispersed, depending
upon the use of persuasion and technology.
A. Evaluate An
Assertion
A.1
Persuasion
The
attorney can present different persuasions to the evaluators, usually during
a mock trial. For each version of persuasion, the attorney can vary any of
the following:
- Opening Statements
- Closing Arguments
- Witnesses
- Exhibits
- Evaluators.
FactLogic allows you to
copy your case for each version of persuasion under which you would like to evaluate
the case.
A.2 The
Assertion is Evaluated in Two Ways
Evaluators judge the facts by quantifying
their judgments as probabilities. After they judge the facts relative to an assertion, they are also asked to evaluate the same assertion intuitively.
Evaluations
should result from the following conditions:
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Evaluators should be drawn randomly from a
population that is similar to the venue, venire, or selected jurors
(i.e., whichever group is to be emulate).
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Evaluators should not communicate. It is
true that fact finders communicate (i.e., deliberate), but, since it is
impossible to anticipate and emulate unusually persuasive fact finders,
it seems better not to try.
Each assertion is evaluated twice - logically and
intuitively:
o Logical
Evaluation. Evaluators evaluate the assertion
logically (by expressing their judgments as probabilities so Factlogic can
combine the probabilities according to probability theory). FactLogic then expresses the
logical evaluation as the probability the assertion is true.
o Intuitive
Evaluation. Fact Finders (e.g., judges or jurors)
will evaluate assertions intuitively. Since the purpose is to emulate their
judgments, evaluators are asked to evaluate assertions intuitively: They
judge the facts (without quantifying them), evaluate the assertion
intuitively, and express the intuitive evaluation as the probability the
assertion is true.
Even
though fact finders in a trial will evaluate assertions intuitively, the
logical evaluation is the most accurate evaluation possible. It fails to be
correct only due to inaccuracies of the judgments it combines. The statistics described in Section
2.4.2 of What Is FactLogic? are determined.
B. Predict The Verdict
To predict a verdict, FactLogic coordinates the
following three parameters:
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The verdict criteria for the case
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The standard of proof
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The probability the assertion is true, as
determined by multiple evaluators
Then, FactLogic uses the theory of
statistics and probability to determine the probability the verdict will be
for the plaintiff/prosecution. It determines three verdicts, depending upon
three probability scenarios:
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Probability = 0% that the verdict will be
for the plaintiff/prosecution (i.e., the
verdict is for the defendant.)
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Probability = (predicted from the above
three parameters) that the verdict will be for the
plaintiff/prosecution.
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Probability = 100% that the verdict will
be for the plaintiff/prosecution.
When the case is created or edited, the
administrator enters pre-trial estimates of the interests of each vested
party (i.e., costs, fees, damages, etc.). FactLogic converts the pre-trial
estimates to post-trial predictions for
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