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FactLogic supplies the answers to almost any questions concerning a criminal
case:
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It can
evaluate any cause of action from its elements.
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It can
evaluate the elements and a cause of action either logically or
intuitively (as do jurors).
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It can
evaluate a case from quantified judgments about the facts supplied by
you or by evaluators you
might invite.
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It can
evaluate the assertions (e.g., causes of action) under different versions of persuasion (or under
no persuasion).
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It can
predict the verdict and the amount (i.e., money and time) to be received
by each vested party.
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It can
evaluate the assertions and predict the verdict from any
evaluators you choose to select/deselect.
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It can be
used at any step during the criminal procedure.
To
evaluate a criminal case, do the following:
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Create The Case. Create your case by entering some case information,
the facts, and one or more assertions to be proved by the facts.
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Copy The Case. Copy the case for each version of persuasion under
which you evaluate the case. Simply click, "Copy Case."
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Select Evaluators. Randomly draw a large number of
evaluators from the venue or the venire. Their judgments are intended to emulate
the judgments of jurors. They probably should not communicate (even
though jurors will deliberate). They can be collocated or dispersed,
depending upon your objective.
A. Evaluate An
Assertion
A.1
Persuasion
You
can present different persuasions to the evaluators, usually during a mock
trial. For each version of persuasion, the you can vary any of
the following:
- Opening Statements
- Closing Arguments
- Witnesses
- Exhibits
- Evaluators.
FactLogic allows you to
copy your case for each version of persuasion you would like to evaluate.
A.2 The
Assertion is Evaluated in Two Ways
Evaluators judge the facts by quantifying
their judgments as probabilities. After they judge the facts to evaluate an
assertion, they are also asked to evaluate the same assertion intuitively.
Evaluations
should result from the following conditions:
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Evaluators should be drawn randomly from a
population that is similar to the venue, venire, or selected jurors
(i.e., whichever group is to be emulate.
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Evaluators should not communicate. It is
true that fact finders communicate (i.e., deliberate), but, since it is
impossible to anticipate and emulate unusually persuasive fact finders,
it seems better not to try.
Each assertion is evaluated logically and
intuitively:
o Logical
Evaluation. Evaluators evaluate the assertion
logically (by expressing their judgments as probabilities so Factlogic can
combine the probabilities according to probability theory), and express the
logical evaluation as the probability the assertion is true.
o Intuitive
Evaluation. Fact Finders (e.g., judges or jurors)
will evaluate assertions intuitively. Since the purpose is to emulate their
judgments, evaluators are asked to evaluate assertions intuitively: They
judge the facts (without quantifying them), evaluate the assertion
intuitively, and express the intuitive evaluation as the probability the
assertion is true.
Even
though fact finders in a trial will evaluate assertions intuitively, the
logical evaluation is the most accurate evaluation possible (given the
wisdom of the judgments of the facts). It fails to be correct only due to
inaccuracies of the judgments it combines. The statistics described in Section
2.4.2 are determined.
B. Predict The Verdict
To predict a verdict, FactLogic coordinates the
following parameters
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The verdict criteria for the case
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The standard of proof (for each evaluator)
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The probability the assertion is true (for
each assertion and each evaluator)
Then, FactLogic uses the theory of statistics
and probability to determine the probability the verdict will be for the
plaintiff/prosecution. It does it for the following three verdict scenarios:
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Probability = 0% that the verdict will be
for the plaintiff/prosecution. (This probability is equivalent to a
verdict for the defendant.)
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Probability = (predicted from the above
three parameters) that the verdict
will be for the plaintiff/prosecution.
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Probability = 100% that the verdict will
be for the plaintiff/prosecution.
When the case is created or edited, the
administrator enters pre-trial estimates of the interests of each vested
party (i.e., costs, fees, damages, etc.). FactLogic converts the pre-trial
estimates to post-trial estimates for
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