As an investigator, you are responsible to your supervisors, clients, or peers to make accurate decisions, organize and document your information, and justify your conclusions. FactLogic allows you to do this. 

You can use FactLogic to evaluate and compare the probability of responsibility of potential suspects. For the purpose of investigation, a case consists of one or more independent facts and the responsibility of one or more potential suspects. (Two facts are independent if knowing that one fact exists does not change your judgment of the other fact.) The responsibility of a potential suspect is a statement to be proved. Independent facts are judged to evaluate the probability of responsibility of each potential suspect.  The responsibility of a potential suspect is evaluated as the probability of responsibility. FactLogic provides the logical probability of  responsibility. If there are multiple potential suspects, compare them by comparing the probability that the responsibility of  each.

You can easily create your case and evaluate it.

• Create Your Case.  Enter some case information, the responsibility of one or more potential suspects, and the independent facts.

• Evaluate Your Case. You can immediately evaluate your case and/or you can randomly assign evaluators to independently evaluate it. Investigators can be collocated or dispersed.  Factlogic combines multiple evaluations and provides the statistical conclusions.

1. Evaluation

1.1 Single Investigator

Most often a single investigator evaluates potential suspects. A single evaluation is always helpful and expedient, but precision is not available from a single evaluation.

1.2 Multiple Investigators

You can assign multiple investigators to evaluate the facts and reach conclusions that are especially trustworthy and accurate. Investigators can be collocated or dispersed. FactLogic sends an e-mail message to each invited investigator that contains a link to the evaluation page for your case. Each investigator knows only the probabilities he/she enters (unless you chose to share the results from all investigators).

• Select Investigators. Select investigators randomly from a population of investigators that are wise and relatively knowledgeable about the facts.  The more investigators the more precise will be the evaluation.

• Obtain Independent Evaluations. Investigators should evaluate the facts  independently (i.e., without communication).

2. Analysis

Statistical analysis is appropriate for investigations because investigators need to know how accurately they have estimated the probability of responsibility, and they sometimes need to compare the probabilities of responsibility of multiple potential suspects.

• Estimate the Probability of Responsibility and Its Precision. FactLogic computes the average probability of responsibility (from the participating investigators), and it computes an interval, that is centered on the average, that you can be 95% confident contains the average probability of responsibility (from the population).

• Compare Two Probabilities of Responsibility. Additionally, you can use a statistical test of significance to determine if two probabilities of responsibility are significantly different. (This test is currently not part of FactLogic, but it can be requested from Convex Corporation.)

Summary

A single investigator can use FactLogic to evaluate facts. A number of investigators can use FactLogic to evaluate facts. When a number of investigators use FactLogic, analyses provide unusually trustworthy results. A statistical test of significance can determine if the probabilities of responsibility of two potential suspects are significantly different.