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The standard
of proof for information is probable cause. The United States Supreme
Court (Illinois v. Gates, 1983) defined the requirements to meet probable
cause. Specifically, the decision said
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the
totality of the circumstances are to be used,
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probable
cause is to be viewed as a set of probabilities, and
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a deficiency
in one probability can be compensated by the probability in another.
These
requirements, as expressed by the United States Supreme Court, have
been implemented for the first time by FactLogic.
The consequences
of information are substantial for the prosecutor and greater for the
suspect. FactLogic helps you justify information, sparing you and the
suspect the consequences of a careless decision. Because FactLogic
quantifies the probability an assertion is true, the fairness of your decision can
be demonstrated and can be substantiated by the judgments of others.
If a prosecutor wants his judgment to be substantiated, he can select
evaluators from his peers (such as other prosecutors). The evaluators use FactLogic,
and statistical analysis are applied to their judgments of probable cause
and the probabilities an assertion is true. The number of evaluators can be chosen for practical reasons, such
as time or budget, or chosen to provide a specific precision:
Accurate
Decision. FactLogic uses your judgments about independent facts and combines them according to the laws of probability.
You can now make decisions with an accuracy never before possible.
Substantiated
Decision. A definition of probable cause refers to " ... circumstances
which would lead a reasonably prudent man to believe in guilt of the
arrested party." If you enlist the independent judgments of others, you can
develop a more accurate probability an assertion is true with which to
compare to probable cause. If substantiated by your colleagues, your
decision is easier to defend as being that of a "reasonably prudent man."
The accuracy depends upon the number of independent judgments and the
variation of their judgments; hence, your estimate of the probability an
assertion is true
can be as precise as you chose.
Begin in the
following way:
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Create The Case. Create your case by entering some case information,
the facts, and one or more assertions to be proved by the facts.
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Evaluate the Case Yourself or
Select Evaluators. Select evaluators as you will. It is
recommended that they be chosen randomly from the venue or venire.
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Assign Evaluators to the Case. Enter some identification for each
evaluator, and assign an e-mail address corresponding to the connected
computer assigned to each. FactLogic sends an e-mail message to each
evaluator (i.e., computer). It contains the address of a page containing
some background case information and the page on which each evaluaor
will enter judgments for each fact.
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