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As an
investigator, you are responsible to your supervisors, clients, or peers
to make accurate decisions, organize and document your information,
and justify your conclusions. FactLogic allows you to do this.
For the purpose of an
investigation to decide on a criminal action, a case consists of one or more
independent facts, one or more assertions, and the standard of proof called
probable cause.
(Two facts are independent if knowing that one fact exists does not change
your judgment of the other fact.) An
assertion is a statement to be proved - such as an allegation, charge, cause
of action, hypothesis, etc. Independent facts are judged to evaluate
assertions.
FactLogic
allows you to judge facts as being either incriminating or exculpatory.
Assertions are evaluated as the probability it
is true. FactLogic provides the logical evaluation of an assertion and
lets you compare it to probable cause.
You can easily create your
case and evaluate it.
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Create
Your Case. Enter some case information, one or more
assertions, and the independent facts.
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Evaluate
Your Case. You can immediately evaluate your case and/or you can
randomly assign investigators to independently evaluate it.
Investigators can be collocated or dispersed. Factlogic combines
multiple evaluations and provides the statistical conclusions.
1.
Evaluation
1.1 Single
Investigator
The most
common application of FactLogic is for a single investigator to determine the probability
an assertion is true. A single evaluation is always helpful and
expedient, but precision is not available from a single evaluation.
1.2 Multiple Investigators
You can assign
multiple investigators to evaluate facts and reach conclusions that
are especially trustworthy and accurate. Investigators can be collocated
or dispersed. FactLogic sends an e-mail message to each invited investigator
that contains a link to the evaluation page for your case. Each investigator
knows only the probabilities he/she enters (unless you chose to share the
results from all investigators).
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Select
Investigators. If possible, select investigators randomly from a
population of investigators that are wise and relatively knowledgeable
about the facts and assertions. The more investigators the more
precise will be the evaluation.
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Obtain Independent
Evaluations. Investigators should evaluate the facts independently (i.e., without communication).
2. Analysis
Statistical
analysis is appropriate for investigations because investigators need to
know how accurately they have estimated the probability an assertion is
true. FactLogic computes the average
probability the assertion is true (from the participating investigators),
and it computes an interval, that is centered on the average, that you can
be 95% confident contains the average probability the assertion is true
(from the population).
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