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Probable cause is required for arrests, searches, and warrants. In 1983, the
United States Supreme Court (Illinois v. Gates) defined the requirements to
meet probable cause. Specifically, the decision said
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the totality of the circumstances are to be used,
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probable cause is to be viewed as a set of probabilities, and
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a deficiency in one probability can be compensated by the probability in
another.
The requirements expressed by the United States Supreme Court have been
implemented for the first time by FactLogic.
FactLogic determines and quantifies the probability that an assertion is
true, the accuracy of your decision can be demonstrated, and it can be
substantiated by the judgments of others:
Accurate Decision. FactLogic uses your judgments about independent facts
and combines them according to the laws of probability. You can now make
decisions with an accuracy never before possible.
Substantiated Decision. A definition of probable cause refers to " ...
circumstances which would lead a reasonably prudent man to believe in guilt
of the arrested party." If you enlist the independent judgments of others,
you can develop a more accurate probability an assertion is true with which
to compare to probable cause. If substantiated by others, your decision is
easier to defend as being that of a "reasonably prudent man." The accuracy
of your decision depends upon the number of independent judgments and their
variation; hence, your estimate of the probability an assertion is true can be as
accurately as you choose.
As a law enforcement
officer, you are responsible to your supervisors and the public
to make accurate decisions, organize and document your information,
and justify your decisions. FactLogic allows you to do this.
For the purpose of arrests,
searches, and warrants, a case consists of one or more
independent facts, one or more assertions, and the standard of proof called
probable cause.
(Two facts are independent if knowing that one fact exists does not change
your judgment of the other fact.) An
assertion is a statement to be proved - such as an allegation, charge, cause
of action, hypothesis, etc. Independent facts are judged to evaluate
assertions.
FactLogic
allows you to judge facts as being either incriminating or exculpatory.
An assertion is evaluated as the probability it
is true. FactLogic provides the logical evaluation of an assertion and
lets you compare it to probable cause.
You can easily create your
case and evaluate it.
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Create
Your Case. Enter some case information, one or more
assertions, and the independent facts.
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Evaluate
Your Case. You can immediately evaluate your case and/or you can
randomly assign officers to independently evaluate it.
Officers can be collocated or dispersed. Factlogic combines
multiple evaluations and provides the statistical conclusions.
1.
Evaluation
1.1 Single
Officer
The most
common application of FactLogic is for a single officer to determine the probability
an assertion is true. A single evaluation is always helpful and
expedient, but precision is not available from a single evaluation.
1.2 Multiple
Officers
You can assign
multiple officers to evaluate facts and reach conclusions that
are especially trustworthy and accurate. Investigators can be collocated
or dispersed. FactLogic sends an e-mail message to each invited officer
that contains a link to the evaluation page for your case. Each officer
knows only the probabilities he/she enters (unless you chose to share the
results from all officers).
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Select
Officers. If possible, select officers randomly from a
population of officers that are wise and relatively knowledgeable
about the facts and assertions. The more officers the more
precise will be the evaluation.
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Obtain Independent
Evaluations. Officers should evaluate the facts independently (i.e., without communication).
2. Analysis
Statistical
analysis is appropriate for arrests, searches, and warrants because officers need to
know how accurately they have estimated the probability an assertion is
true. FactLogic computes the average
probability the assertion is true (from the participating officers),
and it computes an interval, that is centered on the average, that you can
be 95% confident contains the average probability the assertion is true
(from the population).
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