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If you want to
estimate whether a new trial would have a more favorable result and to
justify an appeal, do the following:
-
Create The Case.
Create the case by entering some case information, the facts, and
the assertion(s) to be proved by the facts.
-
Decide Whether to
Simply Evaluate the New Case or to Compare The First Case to The New
Case.
If you simply want to evaluate the new case, go to the next
statement, "Select Evaluators."
You would compare the two cases if you believe it is important to
demonstrate to the court that the result of the new case would be
favorable. (Presumably they would differ by one or a few facts.) To
compare the two cases, copy the case you have just created so the
evaluations of the two cases are not mingled (i.e., simply click,
Copy Case).
-
Select
Evaluators.
You can always evaluate the case yourself, but obtaining evaluators
provides precision. Either ask the jurors from the first trial to
evaluate the new case, or randomly draw a number of evaluators from
the venire, and assign them to the case. The larger the number
of evaluators the greater the accuracy.
-
Evaluate The
Case.
Because evaluators are using FactLogic on the Web, they can be
collocated or dispersed. In either situation, they should evaluate
the case in the absence of persuasion, and they should not
communicate. If you wish to compare the two cases, the same
evaluators should evaluate both.
-
Analyze The Case.
If only the new case has been evaluated, analyze the results as you
would any other type of case. Hopefully the results are favorable.
If the two cases have been evaluated, you may simply compare the
results by observation. If there is some doubt that one is more
favorable than the other, quantify the comparison by conducting a
test of significance. Basically, the test will determine whether
values of a selected measure (often called the response variable)
for the two cases are significantly different.
Determine
if a New Trial is Justified
To determine
if a new trial is justified, compare the results of two statistical
tests,
Generally,
the variable to be measured by FactLogic software, called the response
variable, is the probability an assertion is true less the standard of
proof. In
civil trials, the standard of proof is the preponderance of evidence
- which is fixed by statute at 50%.
1.
Conduct Two Tests
The two statistical tests should be similar
except for the subject of the appeal, usually the facts.
If possible, ask the original jurors to evaluate the facts from each
test. Otherwise select a group of evaluators representative of the
venire. If a group of evaluators is used, the larger it is, the greater
the accuracy (even if the first
test is limited to the original jurors). The tests should not
be conducted in a setting that simulates a trial because the demeanor
and behavior of individuals such as the counselor or witnesses is not
the reason the new trial may be sought; they should not affect the results.
2.
Compare the Two Tests
The objective of the experiment is to compare the response variable from
the test from the first trial and the response variable from the test
from
the proposed trial. Assume that the means of the two tests are equal,
and test this hypothesis (i.e., determine if they are significantly
different). If they are significantly different, a new trial may
be justified, depending upon which mean is greater: If the mean for
the proposed trial is significantly greater than the mean for the first
trial, a new trial is probably justified for the plaintiff or prosecution.
Conversely, if the mean for the first trial is significantly greater
than the mean for the proposed trial, a new trial is probably justified
for the defendant. Table 1 shows recommended decisions depending upon
the result of the comparison test. Also see
Experiment
Design.
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